July 2025 Guelph Real Estate Market Update: Balance, Budgets, and a Calmer Summer Pace

sebturini
Aug 14
3 min read

After a spring real estate market that arrived late, the uptick from June carried into July across much of the Region as list-to-sale ratios hovered around the balanced zone (≈0.5).

At the same time, budget-conscious buyers are steering the market. In several pockets around the Region, median price points are brushing up against double-digit year-over-year declines, and that pull toward value is being felt in Guelph too. Inventory peaked in May and has since plateaued, with detached months of supply leveling a touch over three months—very similar to pre-2016 conditions. Even with sales volume up year-over-year, we’re still tracking ~15% below the 10-year average, which helps explain the calmer cadence you’re likely feeling at open houses.

Below is what changed in Guelph specifically this month.

inside of a Guelph home that was on the market this year

Guelph Real Estate market at a Glance (July 2025)

Sales-to-New-Listing (List-to-Sale) Ratio

The sales-to-new-listing ratio sits at 0.44 in July (balanced is typically ~0.40–0.60). While that’s just shy of a textbook “balanced” read, it’s close—and squarely in the negotiation-friendly zone for buyers and realistic sellers.

Median Sale Price by Property Type (Guelph Real Estate Market)

Detached: $799,000, -11.21% M/M, -4% Y/Y
Town/Link: $655,000, -5.21% M/M, +16.0% Y/Y (month-to-month softness, but a higher median than last July)
Condo: $523,500, +3.25% M/M, -3.41% Y/Y

What that means: Prices slipped again month-over-month, keeping the market friendly for buyers.

What’s Selling (Share of Sales, Guelph)

Detached: 59% of July sales (M/M down, Y/Y up +32%)
Town/Link: 21% of sales (M/M down, Y/Y down −13%)
Condo: 18% of sales (M/M slightly down, Y/Y down −20%)

Translation: Detached homes still dominate the activity mix in Guelph's real estate market, even as buyers stay price-sensitive. Towns and condos remain important entry points, but they accounted for a smaller share than detached in July.

Regional Context That Matters in Guelph

List-to-sale ratios improved across most local markets and hovered around ~0.5, nudging conditions toward balance. Guelph’s own ratio printed 0.44—close enough that well-priced listings are moving without drama.
Inventory peaked in May and has flattened since, with detached months of supply just over 3—the calmest supply picture we’ve seen in years.
Condos remain the most supplied segment regionally at roughly ~5 months of supply—far healthier than the GTA’s ~60 months in some sub-markets—so buyers have options without facing a glut.
Sales are up Y/Y, but we’re still ~15% below the 10-year average, which keeps negotiations rational and timelines sane.

Homebuyer Takeaways

Leverage is real again. With a 0.44 ratio and prices softening M/M, you can negotiate on price, terms, and conditions—especially on listings that overshot the comps.
Detached value windows. The detached median at $799,000 (-11.21% M/M, -4% Y/Y) creates opportunities in family neighbourhoods that were out of reach in 2021–2022.
Entry points exist. Condos at a $523,500 (+3.25% M/M, -3.41% Y/Y) let first-timers get in with less stress—and often with conditions.
Don’t over-time the market. Inventory has stopped climbing and months of supply has settled. If rates cooperate into fall, price softness could moderate.

Seller Playbook

Price precisely. July’s data shows buyers reacting to value and walking from stretch prices. Launch at market, not above it.
Presentation wins. In a balanced-leaning market, your photos, staging, and minor pre-list fixes matter more than they did in the frenzy years.
Expect normal timelines. With conditions back and ratios ~balanced, plan for measured showing traffic and a negotiation or two rather than a day-one bidding war.
Know your segment. Detached is still the workhorse (59% of sales), but towns/condos are more sensitive to pricing and days on market—strategy accordingly.

Where We Go Next

Barring any macro shock, the rest of summer should feel steady: balanced ratios, realistic list prices, and buyers who are careful but committed. If mortgage rates edge down into fall—or even stay put—we’re likely to see stable to slightly firmer absorption, with price trends depending on how much fresh, well-priced inventory actually hits the market.

For now, the window is open for buyers (especially in detached), and serious sellers can still win with smart pricing and clean presentation.