2025 Guelph Real Estate Market Update — October

Why the tide is turning — and what it means if you’re buying or renovating a home with potential

Good news to start your week: the local market in Guelph and the surrounding region finally saw a meaningful shift in October. After a surge of listings in September followed by slightly muted buyer demand, October brought more balance back into the market. That’s welcome for buyers who are patiently waiting for an entry point — and especially for those of you looking at homes with renovation or investment potential.

Inventory & Buyer Demand: A Breather for Buyers

In September, the market saw what many described as an inventory dump — a flood of new listings. But in October, that surge cooled and buyer demand began to tick up again. That shift helped stabilise the supply-vs-demand equation.One of the most important signals: days on market (DOM) have risen noticeably. For the region, the average days on market are now around 18 days for detached homes, 26 days for townhomes, and about 39 days for condos. With more time to assess options, buyers are no longer forced into snap decisions.

For you as a buyer or renovator, this means less pressure and more room to perform due diligence. You can take the time to assess the home, evaluate renovation costs, and make smarter offers. For sellers, it means pricing, condition, and presentation matter more than ever — the “list and let-bids come in quickly” era is fading.

Pricing Trends for Guelph Real Estate Market and Surrounding Areas: A Mixed Picture — But a Shift

While prices haven’t dropped in a dramatic way, the market is clearly cooling from its peak frenzy. A key metric: the average sale-to-list percentage now hovers around 98%. That means the days of homes selling for well above ask due to intense competition are largely behind us.Nearby markets paint an interesting contrast: In Kitchener, condo prices are reported to have dropped to around $351,100, the lowest since November 2020. Meanwhile in Waterloo, condo prices jumped roughly 11% year-over-year to $498,500. Waterloo is showing strength across all product types, while other areas are more uneven.

For Guelph, these trends create two take-aways:

1. If you’re buying with a renovation mindset, you may be able to buy below the previous peak levels (or at least without the fierce competition).

2. If you’re selling a home that needs work or in a softer segment (like condos), you may need to adjust expectations around price and time-to-sell.

Where Renovation & Value-Add Opportunities Are Emerging

Because days on market are increasing and the sale-to-list ratio is slightly below its peak, this is a favourable environment for buyers/investors willing to take on a project. Here are key segments worth watching:

• Detached homes: With an average DOM of 18 days and slightly more realistic pricing, detached homes with good lots and strong structural bones now look more accessible. If you’re a buyer who sees “what it could become,” you may get a better deal.

• Townhomes and condos: These segments are softer — the longer DOM (39 days for condos) signals more supply than demand. For someone comfortable with renovation or conversion (possibly to a rental suite), this could mean larger margin for value creation.

• Adjacent market signals: Waterloo’s growth hints at spill-over demand into Guelph. If investors take notice of Waterloo’s 11% condo climb, some of that appetite may shift westward — which could raise demand for rerovation-friendly homes in Guelph.

• Renovation-friendly properties: Homes needing cosmetic updates (not structural red flags) now present smarter opportunities. With less competition, you might pay less and still get the upside of improved value post-renovation.

What It All Means for You

If you’re buying (especially with renovation in mind):You’re stepping into a market that’s calmer, more selective, and better for planning. You don’t have to rush. Use this time to work with professionals: a Realtor who knows the local market and a contractor who knows what renovation will cost and deliver. That combination is powerful in this environment.Tips:

• Look for homes with good location + structure.

• Budget realistically for renovations (not all “as is” homes are smart buys).

• Use the fact that the pace is slower to your advantage (inspections, multiple offers, terms).

If you’re selling:Today’s market requires more strategy. The quick sale at inflated price is less likely. Instead: price smart, market well, prepare your property — especially if it has renovation needs.Tips:

• If your home needs updates, it may pay to consider doing the work (or staging the potential) to compete.

• Know your competition: lots of homes are sitting longer, so yours needs to stand out.

• Work with your Realtor to ensure your strategy matches market conditions — not last year’s.

Looking Ahead for Guelph Real Estate Market: What to Watch

The market’s next moves will depend on a few key things: interest/financing conditions, inventory flow, and local demand.

• Interest rates & lending conditions: If rates stay high, some buyers will remain cautious, slowing absorption of inventory.

• New listings vs. units sold: If the flow of new listings drops significantly, we could swing back toward seller-favouring conditions. If listings stay high but sales stay modest, more balance (or even buyer-favouring) is likely.

• Neighbourhood & property-type shifts: Especially renovation-friendly homes may outperform, while homes needing major work or in weaker segments may sit longer.

• Local influx/demand factors: Guelph’s growth, affordability relative to Toronto/KW, and investor interest (secondary suites, ADUs) will influence the next leg.

Final Word

October 2025 marks a moment of equilibrium in the Guelph real estate market — neither the runaway seller’s-market of 2021-22 nor a deep buyer’s crash. Instead, it’s a more balanced market — and that’s great news if you’re looking for homes you can renovate, invest in, and build equity with.If you’ve been waiting for the right moment to act, the door is open. Homes with potential are becoming opportunities. And if you’d like help figuring out which homes to target (or how to budget renovations smartly), let’s talk. Every property is different — but when you buy with confidence and build with expertise, you give yourself the best shot at success.

Sebastien Turini

Realtor® | Partner, Kallos Building Group

Guelph, Ontario

sebtherealtor.com | Buy with confidence. Build with expertise.